insidetoronto.com

The list isn't pretty. Our main trading partner is slipping into recession. The Ontario economy lost 24,000 jobs in June. Closer to home, continued losses in the Toronto Stock Exchange have wiped out gains from the past year. The real estate market had its fifth consecutive month of declining year-over-year sales, while the inventory of unsold homes is up 15 per cent.

Toronto's unemployment rate is above those of its neighbours such as Markham and Mississauga. It is even higher than Thunder Bay. Toronto's rate is forecasted to rise due to vanishing tourists and weak buying power in the rest of the GTA.

So the question, "Is Toronto in decline?" asked by former premier Mike Harris and former Reform Party leader Preston Manning in a recent report, come at an appropriate time.

But if you look carefully, there are many reasons to have confidence in the strength of our city.

Toronto is no longer a manufacturing centre. Our prosperity is in services. The services we offer are not only in skilled financial services located in the downtown core, but also in entry-level jobs found in retailing, health care and daycare. Even the Fraser Institute report acknowledges our job growth in sectors such as recreation, culture and the arts.

In fact, for Toronto neighbourhoods populated by those employed in natural resources or medical sciences, the good times have never been better.

The high energy costs, which are devastating to our auto sector, have the potential of making Toronto more attractive. The density of our city core, its vibrant nightlife, safe streets and public transit give our downtown a competitive advantage over those municipalities that have built their future around assumptions of lower energy costs.

While there may be some relative calm being in the eye of a storm, complacency would not be wise. Just as most households have adjusted their habits for challenging times, the city itself should be making preparations so that upcoming difficulties will be easier to bear.

It is unfortunate and risky that the reserve fund to cover higher demand for welfare payments is depleted. Surprisingly, there is no intent to refill the account with municipal revenues. Instead, city policy is to rely on the province to come to the rescue. While politically defensible, hoping for the best stretches credibility and puts too many at risk.

It is too bad as well that the Mayor's Advisory Panel on Economic Competitiveness was allowed to die. Keeping a focus on job creation would be especially welcome in times when unemployment is rising.

So is Toronto faced with decline as a recession approaches? No. We have many strengths that will allow us to weather an uncertain economy and flourish in better times. But, like households, now is the time when our city ought to make preparations to better weather the upcoming storm.